How property, power and policy shape Australia’s climate future

When we think about climate displacement, we usually imagine the most vulnerable being forced to leave their homes. But what if that’s not always true, and those who can afford to relocate are actually the lucky ones?  

Research by Dr Melodie Cartel from the School of Management and Governance at UNSW Business School and Dr Vanessa Bowden from the University of Newcastle shows that much of Australia’s local climate adaptation and potential displacement remains trapped in a complex web of economic self-interest, policy inconsistency, and institutional failures, leaving residential communities with almost no line of defence against climate risk. 

Their collaboration seeks to map the often-hidden dynamics between local institutional actors, climate policy and local stakeholders that shape whether climate adaptation succeeds or falls short. 

“When extreme weather events happen, you can either relocate – if you’re wealthy enough – or rebuild,” said Dr Cartel. “But if you rebuild, there is a high risk that home insurance will eventually withdraw, or simply become unaffordable, leaving you to face climate risk on your own. This is how people get trapped,” she said. 

Climate entrapment: When markets ‘trap’ communities 

Dr Cartel’s research focuses on the organisational and industry dynamics driving climate inequality, particularly through insurance and real estate markets. In a recent study, a media review, that Dr Cartel co-authored with UNSW Business School Professor David Grant and University of Queensland Professor Daniel Nyberg, specifically examined industry-level drivers of climate displacement.  

In their study, which entailed a review of a media podcast and the topics it covered, the authors illustrate how insurance and property markets, by responding to climate risk in exactly the way they are supposed to, are creating a new form of inequality – where the wealthy can relocate from high-risk residential areas, while less affluent households become trapped in them.  

“One of my childhood friends lost his home in the California bushfires,” explained Dr Cartel. “The theoretical mechanisms we described in the paper were unfolding in real time for him. His fear of home insurance not being able to honour their commitments given the scale of the damage, having to rely on go fund me in order to afford a temporary housing solution instead of insurance mechanisms and government relief immediately coming to the table to help, him wondering whether it would be even rational rebuild his home, knowing that home-insurance companies might very well withdraw from the area in the near future.  

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“They had just built an extension on their property to help with their mortgage, and that also is gone. He was torn between his attachment to his home, which incited him to stay, and his scientific mind, telling him that this was just the beginning. Everything that he’s been describing to me is, in fact, the reality of many Americans, the reality described in the media we reviewed, and, increasingly, by many Australians,” she said. “This is not happening in the future; it is already here.” 

This experience inspired her to investigate what she calls the organisational production of climate displacement and entrapment. “After a flood or a fire, people tend to leave dangerous areas, which raises the prices in the nearby residential areas. This often leads to another dilemma: live in precarious housing in a safer area, or afford nicer living conditions in a risky area,” she continued. 

She described how insurance companies, acting rationally to manage risk, can inadvertently create cascading social consequences for people. “When insurance companies either raise their premiums or withdraw from entire areas, that causes property values to collapse. So, climate change is creating a new type of inequality between those who just happened to buy in these areas when climate change was not a big red flag when property hunting, and now it’s becoming a reason for your financial erosion,” she said. 

“One of the questions we are now exploring together is how to formulate and implement climate policies that cater to these social inequalities.” 

UNSW Business School’s Professor David Grant explained the business implications of this, namely that governments and the construction industry must “come together and devise a policy that stops building in (predicted) high-risk areas, thereby averting displacement further up the track.”  

He added that new homes should be built to withstand fire and flood risks, citing recent efforts in the US as an example. “Some insurers in the US have started working with local communities to improve landscapes to reduce fire and flood risk to insure properties. This enables them to continue to insure the properties and reduce risk. Even though there is a cost to insurers, they still come out ahead financially,” he said. 

From climate science to property values 

Although their research focuses on different areas, Dr Cartel and Dr Bowden plan to collaborate on future projects, drawing on Dr Bowden’s work on the local governance of climate adaptation.  

Specifically, Dr Bowden’s latest published paper, Turning Back the Rising Sea: Theory Performativity in the Shift from Climate Science to Popular Authority, examines how scientific knowledge about climate change is translated, reframed, and sometimes undermined through local decision-making processes. In future collaborations, Dr Cartel and Dr Bowden hope to examine how real estate and home insurance markets create power dynamics that hinder Australia’s climate response.  

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Dr Bowden explained: “We have a shared interest in the disconnects between the local context and broader governance structures that shape responses to climate risk through our colleague Professor Daniel Nyberg at the University of Queensland, with whom we’d worked on separate projects. I’ve also done quite a lot of work on the national political response to climate change. 

“One of the things that’s quite apparent when looking at local communities’ responses to climate change is the massive difference between people’s everyday experiences of place and the rhetoric around climate change, which is often seen as abstract, technical and political. We are both passionate about reconciling these differences, so we’re working on that together,” she continued. 

In her previous research, Dr Bowden studied Lake Macquarie – a low-lying coastal area in New South Wales – and uncovered the striking ways climate change science was transformed in local debates. “We went into that project expecting a good news story. The case was discussed in the media and appeared to be a matter of the Council working hard to get the community on board. That was certainly true, but when we spoke to the different stakeholders, it became apparent that the way the council was able to get the community on board was by avoiding talking about climate change altogether,” she explained. 

Instead of focusing on rising sea levels, consultations centred on broader topics, such as resilience and future planning, with the community being more concerned with property prices and insurance risks. “Our research found that this left a lot of space for pre-existing narratives and concerns, especially around insurance and a mistrust of the Council, which were really facilitated by both the local media at the time as well as sections of the property sector and conservative politicians,” said Dr Bowden.

For Dr Bowden, the issue reveals deeper structural challenges in implementing climate policy, particularly the “inherent power imbalances embedded in our social systems.”  

Addressing these issues requires understanding how consultation is shaped by existing power dynamics and creating space for more diverse voices. Local media, she added, often exacerbate tensions by focusing on “controversy and debate” rather than helping communities understand the challenges they face. 

A national problem with local consequences 

Discussing Dr Bowden’s research, Dr Cartel noted that climate consultations often reward inclusivity over effectiveness. In Dr Bowden’s case study, the process was praised for engaging residents, but many adaptation measures were scaled back because acknowledging climate risks could reduce property values – a form of “symbolic compliance” that prioritises process over outcomes.  

The result, Dr Cartel said, is “institutional complexity,” where conflicting interests lead to short-term compromises and stall meaningful climate action. 

These tensions, between scientific authority, economic interest, and political pragmatism, are now playing out on a national scale. The Australian Government’s National Climate Risk Assessment, released in 2025, warns that up to one million homes could become uninsurable in the coming decades. 

Dr Bowden argues that stronger national leadership is essential to guide local governments. “One of the key triggers for community doubts about the impact of sea level rise was the changes in policy on a state level, so having a clear, nationally led framework for understanding these issues – like the recently released National Climate Risk Assessment – I think would be helpful,” she said. 

“But regarding climate goals specifically, there have been calls following that report for a national adaptation plan, as well as targeted support, specifically for those communities affected the most, and I think that is really a minimal starting point,” she added. 

For Dr Cartel, the report illustrates how organisational incentives and fragmented governance can produce unhelpful analysis paralysis. “Somewhere between the levels of government, there is something that gets lost in translation – a failure of policy implementation because of all these organisational dynamics happening on the side.” 

Bridging the gap between knowledge and action 

The researchers said the challenge is no longer about information or awareness but about building action through connection. Local residential communities must collaborate with local governments to understand the real risks and solutions, and become climate-ready.  

Dr Bowden said: “I think the most important finding we have is that there is still a strong disconnect between what we know about the science of climate change and the level of response; even those who are really at the forefront of impacts, are often, I think, either facing too many other challenges in their everyday living to feel they can adequately respond, or are overwhelmed by the enormity of the task – probably most often a combination of both.  

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“For me, this shows that the problem isn’t so much information per se, but the space, time, and capacity for communities to engage with climate change. I hope our work can help move these things forward; people’s lives and livelihoods depend on it.” 

The researchers suggest that the solution is a more connected, participatory, and reflexive policy framework that acknowledges the deep entanglement between economic systems and environmental realities. “The Australian government is now formulating a National Adaptation Plan. What we want to do is figure out the local sources of institutional failures when climate policy gets implemented, to get better at preventing them, and inform the design of place-sensitive climate policies,” concluded Dr Cartel. “People’s lives and livelihoods depend on it.”